一、全国苗木供需分析

（一）全国苗木供需总体情况回顾

“shisiwu”guihuashishiyilai，quanguomiaomushengchangongyingjibenchongzu，danyinshoudaoxinguanyiqinghegengdibaohudengxiangguanzhengcedeyingxiang，quanguoyumiaomianjizi2020niankaishixiajiang，2021nianjiangzhi125wangongqingzuoyou。quanguoniankechupumiaomu（kegongzaolinyongmiaoliang）zi2018nianqichengxianxiajiangqushi，2021nianjiangzhi356yizhuzuoyou；shijishiyongliangyichengxianwenbuxiajiangtaishi，2021nianjiangzhi116yizhu，miaomuzongliangguoshengdanjiegouxinggongjibuzuxianxiangrengrancunzai。2016-2021nianquanguoyumiaomianjijimiaomugongxuqushiruxia：

tu1 quanguoyumiaomianjiqushi

tu2 quanguomiaomugongxuqushi

（二）2023年度全国苗木需求预测

suizheshengtaiwenmingjianshedechixutuijin，shengtaibaohuxiufu、guotulvhuaxingshiherenwudoufashengleshenkebianhua，tebieshishanshuilintianhucaoshazonghezhili、kexuezaolinlvhuahetigaosenlinzhiliangzaishuliangshang、pinzhongshanghezhiliangshangdouduizhongmiaoshengchantichulexinyaoqiu。

----《quanguoguotulvhuaguihuagangyao（2022-2030nian）》tichu：“shisiwu”qijian，quanguoguihuawanchengzaolinzhongcaodengguotulvhua5yimu，zhilishahuatudimianji1yimu。jucicesuan，quanguomeinianrengongzaolinhetuihualinxiufurenwuyue3400wanmuzuoyou，yuexuyaogeleimiaomu40duoyizhu。

----《guowuyuanbangongtingguanyukexuelvhuadezhidaoyijian》mingquetichu，yaokexuexuanzelvhuashuzhongcaozhong，tichangshiyongduoyanghuashuzhong，yindizhiyiyingzaohunjiaolin。《guanyukexuekaizhan2022nianguotulvhuagongzuodetongzhi》zhichuyaojingzhuntishenglincaoziyuanzhiliang，youqiqiangdiaolexiangtushuzhongdeliangzhongxuanyu，baozhangguotulvhuaduiliangzhongdexuqiu。2022nian8yue，guojialincaojujuzhangguanzhiouzaihongyangsaihanbajingshenzuotanhuishangzhichu：“dangqianlincaoshiyefazhanzhengchuzaitizhiliangshangshuipingdeguanjianshiqi，yaobatigaosenlinzhiliangzuoweidakailincaoshiyefazhanxintiandi、fahuisenlin‘siku’zuoyongdedangwuzhiji。jiangtigaosenlinzhiliangbaishangtuchuweizhi，jianchizengliangyucunliangbingzhong、shuliangyuzhiliangbingzhong，zhuanbianguannian、jiakuaizhuanxing，bagongzuozhongxinzhuandaotigaosenlinzhiliangshang”。zheiyushizhemiaomuxuqiujiangxiangduoyanghua、liangzhonghuafangxiangzhuanbian。

----jinnianlai，xijinpingzongshujiduociduifazhanyouchachanye、baozhangliangyouanquan、shulidashiwuguandengzuochuzhongyaozhishi、pishi。dangzhongyang、guowuyuanquedingle“shisiwu”youchafazhanmubiao，ji：dao2025nian，quanguoyouchazhongzhimianjidadao9000wanmu，chayounianchannengdadao200wandun。julejie，guojialincaojuzhengzaibianzhi《jiakuaiyouchachanyefazhansannianxingdongfangan（2023-2025nian）》。2023-2025nian，quanguoyaoxinjiangaobiaozhunyouchalinjin3200wanmuzuoyou，qizhongxinzeng1900duowanmu，dichanlingaizaoyue1300wanmu。yujiweilaiyouchadengmubenyouliaoshuzhongzhongmiaoshengchangongyingliangyuxuqiuliangjiangwenbushangsheng。

mianduixindexingshiheyaoqiu，jiehedangqianquanguomiaomushengchanheshiyongxianzhuang，yuji2023nianwoguomiaomugongxuqingkuangruxia：

（1）苗木生产供应量将持续下降。suizhegengdibaohuzhengcedechixushenrushishi，yongyuyumiaodetudimianjijiangzhubujianshao。yuji2023nianquanguoyumiaomianjijiangcong2021niande125wangongqingjianshaodao110wangongqingzuoyou，quanguomiaomudekegongzaolinyongmiaoliangjiangcong2021niande356yizhujianshaodao282yizhuzuoyou。

（2）苗木需求量将逐步减少。“shisiwu”qijianrengongzaolinmianjidafujianshao，2022nianzaolinzongjihuayuewei5000wanmu，qizhongrengongzaolinmianjijinwei1370wanmu，xiangbi2021nianyoulejiaodafududexiajiang。fengshanyulinhetuihualinxiufujiangzhandaogengdabizhong，hejiyuewei3450wanmu。chucizhiwai，gengdihongxianbixuyanshou，kegonglvhuatudijianshao，jinhoulvhuagongchengzhuyaoyi“jianfengchalv”defangshituijin，baokuo“sihuang”、“sipang”jichengshijingguan、koudaigongyuandeng，miaomushiyongliangjiangyousuojiangdi。yuji2023nianquanguomiaomushiyongliangjiangjixuxiajiang，yuewei86yizhuzuoyou。

（3）对苗木品种及质量的要求将越来越高。yishiduizhenguixiangtushuzhongdexuqiuzengduo。ershiqingjizhiyumiaohewenshirongqiyumiaojiangbeishichangtuichong。sanshikangnixingshuzhongchixuzouqiao，rushiyu“sihuang”zhongzhihuanjingdenaijibo、naiyanjian、naishuishi、kangfengsha、kanghandeshuzhongjiangshishichangxuqiushuzhongdefangxiang。sishi2~3nianshengyouchaliangzhongrongqimiaoxuqiujiangdafuzengjia。wushizaolinlvhuayongmiaozaiguanxing、miaolinghepeiyuchengbendexuanzeshanggengzhuzhongkexuexing，rushuxingzirandequanguanmiao、jieshuinaihandemiaomujianggengshouguanzhu。

（三）全国分树种苗木供需分析

duiquanguo70zhongzhuyaozaolinlvhuamiaomujinxingzongtifenxi，jielunruxia：

1.miaomugongyingyanzhongguoshengdeyou34zhong（r＞2.5），fenbieshi：yunshan、yinxing、hongpiyunshan、zhangzisong、hongdoushan、baipisong、baila、nvzhen、yousong、xuanlingmu、guohuai、ziwei、luanshu、qinghaiyunshan、yushu、heiyang、guihua、haitang、tao、ziyeli、huangyang、cihuai、shaji、huashansong、hetao、luoyesong、ningtiaojinjier、honghuajimu、shanxing、huajiao、cebo、nanmu、weimao、cha。yuqunianfenxixiangbi，yunshan、yinxing、zhangzisong、baipisong、baila、nvzhen、yousong、xuanlingmu、guohuai、ziwei、luanshu、qinghaiyunshan、yushu、heiyang、guihua、haitang、tao、ziyeli、huangyang、cihuai、huashansong、luoyesong、shanxing、cebo、weimao、chadegongyingyijiuyanzhongguosheng，hongpiyunshan、shaji、hetao、ningtiaojinjier、honghuajimu、huajiao、nanmuyougongyingxiangduiguoshengzhuanweiyanzhongguosheng。

2.miaomugongyingxiangduiguoshengdeyou20zhong（1.5＜r≤2.5），fenbieshi：liushu、shinan、wujiaofeng、hongyeshinan、jinyeyu、yangshu、li、longbo、shantao、zisuihuai、xiangzhang、shuiquliu、dujuan、chaziyuanbo、pingguo、shidisong、simianmu、jinyenvzhen、mudan、hongsong。yuqunianfenxixiangbi，hongyeshinan、jinyeyu、yangshu、li、longbo、zisuihuai、dujuan、pingguo、jinyenvzhengongyingyijiuxiangduiguosheng，shinan、wujiaofeng、shantao、chaziyuanbo、shidisong、xiangzhangyougongyingyanzhongguoshengzhuanweixiangduiguosheng，hongsongyougongxujibenpinghengzhuanweixiangduiguosheng。

3.miaomugongxujibenpinghengdeyou8zhong（1＜r≤1.5），fenbieshi：youcha、lianqiao、fengxiang、shanmu、suosuo、maweisong、muhe、yulan。yuqunianfenxixiangbi，youchayougongyingxiangduiguoshengzhuanweigongxujibenpingheng，lianqiao、fengxiang、shanmu、suosuo、maweisong、muheyijiugongxupingheng。

4.miaomugongyingyanzhongbuzudeyou8zhong（r≤1），fenbieshi：mengguyanhuangqi、anshu、putao、zhulei、sangshu、cili、dayenvzhen、zhongjianjinjier。yuqunianfenxixiangbi，anshu、zhulei、zhongjianjinjiergongyingyijiuyanzhongbuzu，sangshuyougongyingyanzhongguoshengzhuanweiyanzhongbuzu，ciliyougongyingxiangduiguoshengzhuanweiyanzhongbuzu，putaoyougongyingjibenpinghengzhuanweiyanzhongbuzu。

二、分地区苗木供需分析

（一）东北地区

gaidiqubaokuoheilongjiangsheng（baokuoyichunsengong）、jilinsheng（baokuojilinsengong、zhangbaisengong）、liaoningshengyijineimenggusengongjituan、daxinganlinglinyejituan、heilongjiangsengongjituansuozaiquyu。

1. 东北地区苗木供需情况回顾

dongbeidiquyongyoudasenlin、dacaoyuan、dashidi、dabingxuedengyouzhiziranziyuanheguojiazuizhongyaodeshangpinliangjidi，zaibaozhangguojiabeibudiqushengtaianquan、guojialiangshizhuchanquchannenganquan、shuiziyuananquan、mucaidengzhanlveziyuananquan、nengyuananquan、jiejiang（he）guotuanquandengfangmianfahuizheshifenzhongyaodezhanlvezuoyong。xiangbi2020nian，2021niandongbeidiqudeyumiaomianjihekegongzaolinyongmiaoliangyuqunianjibenchiping，miaomushijishiyongliangyousuoxiajiang，zongtiguoshengqushiyiranmingxian。2016-2021niangaidiquyumiaomianjijimiaomugongxuqushiruxia：

tu3 dongbeidiquyumiaomianjiqushi

tu4 dongbeidiqumiaomugongxuqushi

2. 2023年度东北地区苗木需求预测

dongbeidiquzhongdiankaizhankexueguotulvhua、guojiachubeilinjidi、cunzhuanglvhua、shengtaipingzhangdengjianshe，dalifazhanlinxiajingjihelintechanye，gedizhidingleyixiliexiangguanguihua、gongzuofangan、shishiyijian。《heilongjiangshenglinyehecaoyuanbaohufazhan“shisiwu”guihua》、《jilinshenglinyehecaoyuanfazhan“shisiwu”guihua》qiangdiaoquanmianjiaqiangshengtaibaohuxiufu，jiansheyipilincaozhongzhiziyuanbaocunku、liangzhongfanyujidi、baozhangxingmiaopu。ciwai，《heilongjiangshengzaolinlvhua“shisiwu”guihua》、《nongtianfanghulintixijianshegongzuo（2021-2023nian）》、《liaoningsheng“shisiwu”linyecaoyuanfazhanguihua》zhichu，kexueshishiguotulvhua，qieshitishengxiangcunlvhuameihuaxiaoguo，quanmiantishenglincaoshengtaixitongtanhuinengli，jiakuaixingchengheilongjiangshenglincao“shuangxunhuan”fazhanxingeju；《daxinganlingdiquguominjingjiheshehuifazhandishisigewunianguihuaheerlingsanwunianyuanjingmubiaogangyao》yaoqiugaidiqudelinqujingjizhuanxingshixianxintupo，zhuyaofazhanhandijiang（jian）guochanye，jiakuaisenlinjingyingdekaizhanhezhongyaocaizhongzhifanyujididejianshe。genjujinjinianmiaomugongxuxianzhuang，jieheshangshuguihuazhengcejijianshezhongdian，yuji2023niandongbeidiqumiaomudekegongzaolinyongmiaoliangyuewei22yizhu。shijishiyonglianglveyouxiajiang，yuewei7yizhu。

3. 东北地区分树种苗木供需分析

fenbiedui35zhongzhuyaozaolinlvhuamiaomuxuqiujinxingquyuxingfenxi，jielunruxia：

（1）miaomugongyingyanzhongguoshengdeyou17zhong（r＞2.5），fenbieshi：huaqiu、yinxing、hongpiyunshan、qishu、hongdoushan、chouli、baihua、zhangzisong、dingxiang、tangqi、zisuihuai、yunshan、yushu、zhangbailuoyesong、shaji、zhenzi、wenguanguo。yuqunianfenxixiangbi，huaqiu、qishu、hongdoushan、chouli、baihua、zhangzisong、tangqi、yunshan、wenguanguodegongyingyijiuyanzhongguosheng，dingxiang、yushu、zhangbailuoyesong、zhenziyougongyingxiangduiguoshengzhuanweiyanzhongguosheng，shajiyougongxujibenpinghengzhuanweiyanzhongguosheng，hongpiyunshanyougongyingyanzhongbuzuzhuanweiyanzhongguosheng。2023nianyumiaojianyi：yishangshuzhongbuyijixufazhan。

（2）miaomugongyingxiangduiguoshengdeyou9zhong（1.5＜r≤2.5），fenbieshi：huangbo、wujiaofeng、yousong、cebo、yuyemei、hutaoqiu、shuiquliu、yangshu、hongsong。yuqunianfenxixiangbi，yuyemei、hutaoqiugongyingyijiuxiangduiguosheng，huangbo、wujiaofeng、yousong、cebo、shuiquliuyougongyingyanzhongguoshengzhuanweixiangduiguosheng，yangshu、hongsongyougongxujibenpinghengzhuanweigongyingxiangduiguosheng。2023nianyumiaojianyi：yishangshuzhongkeyijinshenfazhan。

（3）miaomugongxujibenpinghengdeyou5zhong（1＜r≤1.5），fenbieshi：liushu、shanxing、guohuai、heisuiculi、longyasongmu。yuqunianfenxixiangbi，shanxinggongxuyijiujibenpingheng。2023nianyumiaojianyi：yishangshuzhongkeyishidangfazhan。

（4）miaomugongyingyanzhongbuzudeyou4zhong（r≤1），fenbieshi：xiboliyahongsong、mengguli、ciwujia、xiaoheiyang。yuqunianfenxixiangbi，xiboliyahongsonggongyingyijiuyanzhongbuzu，mengguliyougongyingyanzhongguoshengzhuanweiyanzhongbuzu。2023nianyumiaojianyi：yishangshuzhongkeyidalifazhan。

*dongbeidiqugesheng（sengongjituan）miaomugongxuqingkuangruxia：

（二）华北地区

gaidiqubaokuobeijingshi、tianjinshi、hebeisheng、shanxisheng、neimengguzizhiqu（chuneimenggusengongjituanwai）suozaiquyu。

1. 华北地区苗木供需情况回顾

huabeidiquzhuyaoweiwendaidaluxingjifengqihou，sijifenming，quannianjiangshuiliangshao。xiangbi2020nian，2021nianhuabeidiqudeyumiaomianjilveyoujianshao，kegongzaolinyongmiaolianghemiaomushijishiyongliangyousuoxiajiang，zongtiguoshengqushiyousuohuanjie。2016-2021niangaidiquyumiaomianjijimiaomugongxuqushiruxia：

tu5 huabeidiquyumiaomianjiqushi

tu6 huabeidiqumiaomugongxuqushi

2. 2023年度华北地区苗木需求预测

jinnianlai，huabeidiquzhelijinxingsenlinchengshijianshe，gesheng（qu、shi）xiangjichutaiheshishileyidapilvhuazaolindexintongzhi、zhengce、guihuahegongcheng。《beijingsenlinchengshifazhanguihua（2018-2035nian）》、《shanxishengguanyukexuekaizhan2022nianguotulvhuagongzuodetongzhi》he《hebeishenglinyehecaoyuanbaohufazhan“shisiwu”guihua》tichuyitigaosenlinhelvdifugailvzuoweifazhanmubiao；《tianjinshitianranlinbaohuxiufugongcheng（2018-2035nian）》tichuquanmianguancheluoshitianranlinbaohuxiufugongzuo；《neimengguzizhiqu“shisiwu”linyehecaoyuanbaohufazhanguihua》guanzhuyeshengdongzhiwubaohuhelincaoziyuanbaohu。dangqianhuabeidiquduishuzhongdexuqiuyixiangtushuzhong、caiyeshuzhong、qiaomushuzhong、guanmushuzhong、tengbenshuzhongweizhu。genjujinjiniandemiaomugongxuqingkuang，jieheshangshuguihuazhengce，yuji2023nianhuabeidiqumiaomudekegongzaolinyongmiaoliangyuewei48yizhu。shijishiyonglianglveyoushangsheng，yuewei17yizhu。

3. 华北地区分树种苗木供需分析

fenbiedui34zhongzhuyaozaolinlvhuamiaomuxuqiujinxingquyuxingfenxi，jielunruxia：

（1）miaomugongyingyanzhongguoshengdeyou14zhong（r＞2.5），fenbieshi：zhangzisong、yunshan、shaji、liushu、yousong、baipisong、guohuai、luoyesong、yangshu、ningtiaojinjier、haitang、yushu、shanxing、weimao。yuquniandefenxijieguoxiangbi，zhangzisong、yunshan、shaji、yousong、baipisong、luoyesong、yangshu、yushu、shanxing、weimaodegongyingyijiuyanzhongguosheng，guohuai、ningtiaojinjier、haitangyougongyingxiangduiguoshengzhuanweigongyingyanzhongguosheng。2023nianyumiaojianyi：yishangshuzhongbuyijixufazhan。

（2）miaomugongyingxiangduiguoshengdeyou8zhong（1.5＜r≤2.5），fenbieshi：cebo、baila、chaziyuanbo、yuyemei、jinyeyu、cihuai、shantao、yuanbo。yuquniandefenxijieguoxiangbi，baila、jinyeyu、shantaoyijiugongyingxiangduiguosheng，cebo、chaziyuanbo、cihuaiyougongyingyanzhongguoshengzhuanweigongyingxiangduiguosheng，yuanboyougongxuyanzhongbuzuzhuanweigongyingxiangduiguosheng。2023nianyumiaojianyi：yishangshuzhongkeyijinshenfazhan。

（3）miaomugongxujibenpinghengdeyou7zhong（1＜r≤1.5），fenbieshi：li、pingguo、lianqiao、xiaobo、simianmu、putao、yingchun。yuquniandefenxijieguoxiangbi，lianqiao、xiaobo、putaodegongyingyijiuxiangduipingheng，li、pingguoyougongyingxiangduiguoshengzhuanweigongyingjibenpingheng，simianmuyougongyingyanzhongbuzuzhuanweigongxujibenpingheng。2023nianyumiaojianyi：yishangshuzhongkeyishidangfazhan。

（4）miaomugongyingyanzhongbuzudeyou5zhong（r≤1），fenbieshi：mengguyanhuangqi、xiaoyejinjier、suosuo、zhongjianjinjier、hongdoushan。yuquniandefenxijieguoxiangbi，mengguyanhuangqi、xiaoyejinjier、suosuo、zhongjianjinjierdegongyingyijiuyanzhongbuzu。2023nianyumiaojianyi：yishangshuzhongkeyidalifazhan。

*huabeidiqugesheng（zizhiqu、zhixiashi）miaomugongxuqingkuangruxia：

（三）西北地区

gaidiqubaokuoshanxisheng、gansusheng、qinghaisheng、ningxiahuizuzizhiqu、xinjiangweiwuerzizhiqu、xinjiangshengchanjianshebingtuansuozaiquyu。

1. xibeidiqumiaomugongxuqingkuanghuigu

youyuxibeidiqudeqihoujiaoweielie、dixingjiaoweifuzaduobian，gaidiquzongtishengtaihuanjingyishoudaoyingxiang，qiegaidiqudesenlinziyuanjiaoweikuifa，linmuziyuandediquxingfenbuchayijiaoda。zuoweiwoguozhongyaodeshengtaipingzhangzhiyi，xibeidiqudelincaoziyuanfahuizhehanyangshuiyuan、baochishuitu、fangfenggusha、fangzaijianzaiyijibaohushengwuduoyangxingdengduozhongshengtaigongneng。xiangbi2020nian，2021nianxibeidiqudemiaomuxinyumianjihemiaomuchanliangjianshaojiaoda，kegongzaolinyongmiaoliangyouyidingjianshao，miaomushijishiyongliangyeyousuoxiajiang，zongtiguoshengqushiyousuohuanjie。2016-2021niangaidiquyumiaomianjijimiaomugongxuqushiruxia：

tu7 xibeidiquyumiaomianjiqushi

tu8 xibeidiqumiaomugongxuqushi

2. 2023年度西北地区苗木需求预测

xibeidiquchutaiheshishileyixilieyouguanzhengcejiguihua，shanxishengchutai《shanxishengguominjingjiheshehuifazhandishisigewunianguihuaheerlingsanwunianyuanjingmubiaogangyao》、qinghaishengyinfa《qinghaishengshengtaijingjifazhanguihua(2021—2025nian)》dengzhengce，bingtichuyaozuodazuoqiangzuoyoulvseyoujitesechanye，zuohaotesejingjilinguochanyegaoxiaozaipeihetizhizengxiaojishuyanjiuyushifantuiguang；gansusheng、ningxiahuizuzizhiquhexinjiangweiwuerzizhiqufenbieyinfa《gansusheng“shisiwu”linyecaoyuanbaohufazhanguihua》、《ningxialinyehecaoyuanfazhan“shisiwu”guihua》、《xinjiangweiwuerzizhiqusenlinjingyingguihua（2016-2050）》dengguihua，junzhichuyingjingzhuntishengsenlinzhiliang，shishilincaozhiliangjingzhuntishenggongcheng，zonghezhilituihuashahuacaoyuan，gonggufangshazhishahehuangmohuazonghezhilichengguo，gaishancuiruoshengtaihuanjing。genjujinjinianmiaomugongxuqingkuang，jieheyouguanguihuazhengce，yuji2023nianxibeidiqumiaomudekegongzaolinyongmiaoliangyuewei57yizhu。shijishiyonglianglveyouxiajiang，yuewei16yizhu。

3. 西北地区分树种苗木供需分析

fenbiedui35zhongzhuyaozaolinlvhuamiaomuxuqiujinxingquyuxingfenxi，jielunruxia：

（1）miaomugongyingyanzhongguoshengdeyou19zhong（r＞2.5），fenbieshi：yunshan、zhangzisong、baipisong、youyongmudan、baila、guohuai、yousong、yushu、xing、cihuai、hetao、qinghaiyunshan、luoyesong、shazao、shanxing、yangshu、pingguo、huyang、chengliu。yuqunianfenxixiangbi，yunshan、zhangzisong、baipisong、guohuai、yousong、yushu、xing、cihuai、hetao、qinghaiyunshan、shazao、shanxing、yangshu、chengliudegongyingyijiuyanzhongguosheng，pingguoyougongyingxiangduiguoshengzhuanweiyanzhongguosheng。2023nianyumiaojianyi：yishangshuzhongbuyijixufazhan。

（2）miaomugongyingxiangduiguoshengdeyou8zhong（1.5＜r≤2.5），fenbieshi：suosuo、shantao、ningtiaojinjier、lianqiao、cebo、gouqi、zisuihuai、ziyeli。yuqunianfenxixiangbi，ningtiaojinjier、cebodegongyingyijiuxiangduiguosheng，gouqiyougongyingyanzhongguoshengzhuanweixiangduiguosheng，shantaoyougongxujibenpinghengzhuanweixiangduiguosheng。2023nianyumiaojianyi：yishangshuzhongkeyijinshenfazhan。

（3）miaomugongxujibenpinghengdeyou6zhong（1＜r≤1.5），fenbieshi：ziyeaiying、huajiao、cha、shuila、shaji、chaziyuanbo。yuqunianfenxixiangbi，chaziyuanboyougongyingyanzhongguoshengzhuanweigongxujibenpingheng，huajiaoyougongyingxiangduiguoshengzhuanweigongxujibenpingheng，shajiyougongyingyanzhongbuzuzhuanweigongxujibenpingheng。2023nianyumiaojianyi：yishangshuzhongkeyishidangfazhan。

（4）miaomugongyingyanzhongbuzudeyou2zhong（r≤1），fenbieshinvzhen、putao。2023nianyumiaojianyi：yishangshuzhongkeyidalifazhan。

*xibeidiqugesheng（zizhiqu）miaomugongxuqingkuangruxia：

（四）华中地区

gaidiqubaokuohenansheng、hubeisheng、hunanshengsuozaiquyu。

1. 华中地区苗木供需情况回顾

huazhongdiqudixingyipingyuan、qiuling、pendihehehuweizhu，linyeziyuanzhongleifengfu、leixingfengfu。xiangbi2020nian，2021nianhuazhongdiqudeyumiaomianjiyousuoxiajiang，xinyumianjichengwenbuxiajiangqushi，kegongzaolinyongmiaoliangjibenchiping，shijishiyongliangyousuoshangsheng，zongtiguoshengyujiegouxingbuzuyirancunzai。2016-2021niangaidiquyumiaomianjijimiaomugongxuqushiruxia：

tu9 huazhongdiquyumiaomianjiqushi

tu10 huazhongdiqumiaomugongxuqushi

2. 2023年度华中地区苗木需求预测

huazhongdiqukexuekaizhanguotulvhua，jijituijinlinyechanyegaozhiliangfazhan。《henansheng“shisiwu”shengtaihuanjingbaohuheshengtaijingjifazhanguihua》、《hunansheng“shisiwu”linyecaoyuanzhongmiaofazhanguihua》qiangdiaojiaqiangxiangtushuzhonghezhenguishuzhongmiaomujidijianshe；《hubeishengshengtaihuanjingbaohu“shisiwu”guihua》guanzhusenlinshengtaixitongjiansheyubaohu，shenrutuijinyilindizaolinlvhua；《hunansheng“shisiwu”linyecaoyuanzhongmiaofazhanguihua》he《hubeishenglinye“shisiwu”fazhanguihua》zhichuyaodalifazhanyouchadengtesejingjilinshuzhong。jiehehuazhongdiquzhongdagongchengxiangmujimiaomugongxuxianzhuang，yuji2023nianhuazhongdiqumiaomudekegongzaolinyongmiaoliangyuewei21yizhu。shijishiyonglianglveyouxiajiang，yuewei9yizhu。

3. 华中地区分树种苗木供需分析

fenbiedui35zhongzhuyaozaolinlvhuamiaomuxuqiujinxingquyuxingfenxi，jielunruxia：

（1）miaomugongyingyanzhongguoshengdeyou13zhong（r＞2.5），fenbieshi：mudan、huangyang、nvzhen、qiushu、guohuai、huajiao、xuanlingmu、ziwei、zisuihuai、cebo、baila、luanshu、bomu。yuqunianfenxixiangbi，huangyang、guohuai、xuanlingmu、ziwei、baila、luanshudegongyingyijiuyanzhongguosheng，nvzhen、qiushu、ceboyougongyingxiangduiguoshengzhuanweiyanzhongguosheng，huajiaoyougongxujibenpinghengzhuanweiyanzhongguosheng，bomuyougongyingyanzhongbuzuzhuanweiyanzhongguosheng。2023nianyumiaojianyi：yishangshuzhongbuyijixufazhan。

（2）miaomugongyingxiangduiguoshengdeyou6zhong（1.5＜r≤2.5），fenbieshi：wujiaofeng、tao、shinan、shuishan、guihua、xiangzhang。yuqunianfenxixiangbi，taodegongyingyijiuxiangduiguosheng，wujiaofeng、shinan、guihua、xiangzhangyougongyingyanzhongguoshengzhuanweixiangduiguosheng。2023nianyumiaojianyi：yishangshuzhongkeyijinshenfazhan。

（3）miaomugongxujibenpinghengdeyou8zhong（1＜r≤1.5），fenbieshi：yangshu、fengxiang、pingguo、hongdoushan、cha、shidisong、shanmu、youcha。yuqunianfenxixiangbi，yangshu、fengxiang、shanmugongxuyijiujibenpingheng，shidisongyougongyingyanzhongguoshengzhuanweijibenpingheng，youchayougongyingxiangduiguoshengzhuanweijibenpingheng，hongdoushanyougongyingyanzhongbuzuzhuanweijibenpingheng。2023nianyumiaojianyi：yishangshuzhongkeyishidangfazhan。

（4）miaomugongyingyanzhongbuzudeyou8zhong（r≤1），fenbieshi：dayenvzhen、honghuajimu、wangchunhua、hongyeshinan、cihuai、banli、yulan、luoyushan。yuqunianfenxixiangbi，honghuajimu、wangchunhuayirangongyingyanzhongbuzu，hongyeshinan、yulanyougongxujibenpinghengzhuanweiyanzhongbuzu。2023nianyumiaojianyi：yishangshuzhongkeyidalifazhan。

*huazhongdiqugeshengmiaomugongxuqingkuangruxia：

（五）华东地区

gaidiqubaokuoshanghaishi、jiangsusheng、zhejiangsheng、anhuisheng、fujiansheng、jiangxisheng、shandongshengsuozaiquyu。

1. 华东地区苗木供需情况回顾

huadongdiqushuyaredaishirunxingjifengqihouhewendaijifengqihou，dimaoduoyang，shuixifada，dongzhiwuzhongleifanduo，qifengfudelincaoziyuanweiwoguoshixiantanzhonghemubiao、weihushengtaianquanzuochuzhongyaogongxian。xiangbi2020nian，2021nianhuadongdiqudeyumiaomianjixiajiang，xinyumianjipingwenjianshao，miaomuchanliangjiangdijiaoda，kegongzaolinyongmiaoliangyousuoshangsheng，miaomushijishiyonglianglveyoujiangdi，zongtiguoshengqushimingxian。2016-2021niangaidiquyumiaomianjijimiaomugongxuqushiruxia：

tu11 huadongdiquyumiaomianjiqushi

tu12 huadongdiqumiaomugongxuqushi

2. 2023年度华东地区苗木需求预测

jinnianlai，huadongdiqujiehelinyefazhantedian，gediduifazhanguihuayumubiaojinxinglexihua。《shanghaishilvhuaheshirongguanliju（shanghaishilinyeju）2021niangongzuozongjieyu2022niangongzuoyaodian》quanmianguancheluoshi“linzhangzhi”，wendingtuijinlvhuajianshe；《jiangsushenglinyeshisiwufazhanguihua》jianchiguotulvhuayucaisehua、zhenguihua、xiaoyihuayoujijiehe，baxiangtushuzhongbaizaituchuweizhi；《zhejiangshenglinyefazhanshisiwuguihua》quanlidazao“yidi”、“liangping”、“sanqu”、“duoqun”defazhankongjianbuju；《anhuishengguoyoulinchangfazhan“shisiwu”guihua》、《fujiansheng“shisiwu”linyefazhanzhuanxiangguihua》gulilinyechanyechuangxin，yindizhiyifazhanshengtaiqu，cujinlinyechanyegaozhiliangfazhan；《jiangxishenglinyefazhan“shisiwu”guihua》、《shandongsheng“shisiwu”linyebaohufazhanguihua》lituilinyechanyezhuanxingshengji，tizhizengxiao。genjujinjinianmiaomugongxuqingkuang，jiehexiangguanguihuahezhengce，yuji2023nianhuadongdiqudekegongzaolinyongmiaoliangyuewei100yizhu。shijishiyonglianglveyouxiajiang，yuewei22yizhu。

3. 华东地区分树种苗木供需分析

fenbiedui35zhongzhuyaozaolinlvhuamiaomuxuqiujinxingquyuxingfenxi，jielunruxia：

（1）miaomugongyingyanzhongguoshengdeyou21zhong（r>2.5），fenbieshi：nantianzhu、nanfanghongdoushan、yinxing、nvzhen、baila、yinghua、guihua、guohuai、xuanlingmu、ziwei、jushu、haitang、xiangzhang、luanshu、tao、cebo、heiyang、honghuajimu、huangyang、zhongshanshan、hongyeshinan。yuqunianfenxixiangbi，nantianzhu、yinxing、nvzhen、baila、yinghua、guihua、guohuai、xuanlingmu、ziwei、jushu、haitang、luanshu、xiangzhang、tao、cebo、heiyangdegongyingyijiuyanzhongguosheng，honghuajimu、huangyang、hongyeshinanyougongyingxiangduiguoshengzhuanweiyanzhongguosheng。2023nianyumiaojianyi：yishangshuzhongbuyijixufazhan。

（2）miaomugongyingxiangduiguoshengdeyou8zhong（1.5

（3）miaomugongyingjibenpinghengdeyou5zhong（1

（4）miaomugongyingyanzhongbuzudeyou1zhong（r≤1），shianshu。2023nianyumiaojianyi：yishangshuzhongkeyidalifazhan。

*huadongdiqugesheng（zhixiashi）miaomugongxuqingkuangruxia：

（六）华南地区

gaidiqubaokuoguangdongsheng、hainansheng、guangxizhuangzuzizhiqusuozaiquyu。

1. 华南地区苗木供需情况回顾

huanandiqudaduoshuyuyaredaijifengqihouheredaijifengqihou，yunyulezhongguolianpianmianjizuidaderedaiyulin，shengwuzhongleimiji，kanchengzhongguoshengwubaohudeyisouyulinfangzhou。huanandiqu2021niandeyumiaomianjiyu2020nianjibenchiping，xinyumianjilveyoujianshao，kegongzaolinyongmiaoliangyumiaomushijishiyongliangjunyousuoshangshengbingquyuheli，zongtigongxuchengpinghengqushi。2016-2021niangaidiquyumiaomianjijimiaomugongxuqushiruxia：

tu13 huanandiquyumiaomianjiqushi

tu14 huanandiqumiaomugongxuqushi

2. 2023年度华南地区苗木需求预测

huanandiquchutaileyixiliedezhengcewenjian，guangdongshengxiafale《guangdongshenglinmuzhongmiaofazhan“shisiwu”guihua》、《guojiachubeilinjiansheguihua（2018-2035nian）》dengzhengce，jinyibuwanshanshengtaixiufujianshe。guangxizhuangzuzizhiquyinfa《guangxilinyezhongmiaofazhan“shisiwu”guihua》、《2022nianquanquyoucha“shuangqian”jihuashishifangan》dengyixilieguihua，tishenglinyeshengtaijiansheshuiping、fazhanlvseshengtaifuminchanye，gaishanquyushengtaihuanjinghetigaoshengtaichanpingongjinengli；hainanshengyinfale《hainanshenglinyegaozhiliangfazhan“shisiwu”guihua》、《hainanshengyouchachanyefazhanguihua（2017-2025nian）》dengguihua，jinyibuwanshanshengtaiwenhuajianshegongcheng、jianlikechixufazhanjizhi。genjujinjinianmiaomugongxuqingkuang，tongshijiehezhongdagongchengxiangmu，yuji2023nianhuanandiqumiaomudekegongzaolinyongmiaoliangyuewei7yizhu。shijishiyonglianglveyouxiajiang，yuewei5yizhu。

3. 华南地区分树种苗木供需分析

fenbiedui32zhongzhuyaozaolinlvhuamiaomuxuqiujinxingquyuxingfenxi，jielunruxia：

（1）miaomugongyingxiangduiguoshengdeyou4zhong（1.5＜r≤2.5），fenbieshi：luohansong、guihua、qiuqie、aozhoujianguo。yuqunianfenxixiangbi，luohansong、aozhoujianguogongyingyijiuxiangduiguosheng，guihuayougongyingyanzhongguoshengzhuanweigongyingxiangduiguosheng，qiuqieyougongyingyanzhongbuzuzhuanweigongyingxiangduiguosheng。2023nianyumiaojianyi：yishangshuzhongkeyijinshenfazhan。

（2）miaomugongxujibenpinghengdeyou12zhong（1＜r≤1.5），fenbieshi：youcha、fengxiang、shanduying、muhe、nanmu、cha、xiangzhang、bajiao、jinhuacha、shidagonglao、shanmu、hongzhui。yuqunianxiangbi，muhe、bajiao、xiangzhang、jinhuacha、shanmu、hongzhuigongxuyijiujibenpingheng，youchayougongyingyanzhongguoshengzhuanweigongxujibenpingheng，fengxiang、shanduyingyougongxuxiangduiguoshengzhuanweigongxujibenpingheng，nanmuyougongyingyanzhongbuzuzhuanweigongxujibenpingheng。2023nianyumiaojianyi：yishangshuzhongkeyishidangfazhan。

（3）miaomugongyingyanzhongbuzudeyou16zhong（r≤1），fenbieshi：huolinan、chenxiang、lishuokao、anshu、heimuxiangsi、dayexiangsi、baigurang、mumahuang、taiwanxiangsi、mulan、hualimu、yugui、hongshulin、honghuajimu、sangshu、dujuan。yuqunianxiangbi，chenxiang、anshu、baigurang、hualimudegongyingyijiuyanzhongbuzu，mumahuangyougongyingxiangduiguoshengzhuanweigongyingyanzhongbuzu，huolinan、lishuokaoyougongxujibenpinghengzhuanweigongyingyanzhongbuzu。2023nianyumiaojianyi：yishangshuzhongkeyidalifazhan。

*huanandiqugesheng（zizhiqu）miaomugongxuqingkuangruxia：

（七）西南地区

gaidiqubaokuozhongqingshi、sichuansheng、guizhousheng、yunnansheng、xizangzizhiqusuozaiquyu。

1. 西南地区苗木供需情况回顾

xinandiquduoshanduoyu，shiwoguojiangshuijubuchayizuida、bianhuazuifuzadediquzhiyi，qidixingfuza，ziranshengtaihuanjingcuiruo，chuyuwoguoxuduoheliudeshangyoudidai，dangdidelinyeshengtaihuanjingjianshexuyaozhongdianguanzhu。xinandiquyumiaomianjijinnianbodongxiangdui2016-2017nianyousuojianhuan，2021nianyumiaomianjiyuwangnianchiping。xiangbi2020nian，2021nianxinandiqudemiaomuchanliangmingxianxiajiang，kegongzaolinyongmiaoliang、miaomushijishiyongliangzongtichengxiajiangqushi。2016-2021niangaidiquyumiaomianjijimiaomugongxuqushiruxia：

tu15 xinandiquyumiaomianjiqushi

tu16 xinandiqumiaomugongxuqushi

2. 2023年度西南地区苗木需求预测

xinandiqudalifazhanbingjijikaizhanleguojiachubeilinjianshe、guotulvhuaxingdonghexiangcunlvhuameihuaxingdong，bingtongguofazhangongyeyuanliaolinhexiangtushuzhongtuidongxiangcunzhenxing。《sichuansheng“shisiwu”ziranziyuanbaohuheliyongguihua》、《guizhousheng“shisiwu”linyecaoyuanbaohufazhanguihua》、《yunnansheng“shisiwu”lincaochanyefazhanguihua》he《zhongqingshi“shisiwu”linyecaoyuanfazhanguihua》zhichuyaozhongdianfazhanmubenyouliao、teselinguodengtesejingjilin，cujinlinyechanyedeheliliyonghefazhan；《xizang“liangjiangsihe”liuyuzaolinlvhuagongchengguihua（2014-2030nian）》tichuyingjiehequyushengtaijianshe，jianlifanghulintixi。genjujinnianmiaomugongxuzhuangkuang，jiehegongchengjiansheguihua，yuji2023nianxinandiqumiaomukegongzaolinyongmiaoliangyuewei27yizhu。shijishiyongliangyuwangnianjibenchiping，yuewei10yizhu。

3. 西南地区分树种苗木供需分析

fenbiedui35zhongzhuyaozaolinlvhuamiaomuxuqiujinxingquyuxingfenxi，jielunruxia：

（1）miaomugongyingyanzhongguoshengdeyou13zhong（r＞2.5），fenbieshi：hongdoushan、luanshu、shidisong、guihua、yinxing、ganju、huajiao、chuandianqimu、cha、hetao、yunshan、nanmu、xiangzhang。yuqunianfenxixiangbi，luanshu、shidisong、guihua、yinxing、ganju、cha、yunshan、xiangzhanggongyingyijiuyanzhongguosheng，huajiao、chuandianqimuyougongyingxiangduiguoshengzhuanweiyanzhongguosheng，hetaoyougongyingyanzhongbuzuzhuanweigongyingyanzhongguosheng。2023nianyumiaojianyi：yishangshuzhongbuyijixufazhan。

（2）miaomugongyingxiangduiguoshengdeyou8zhong（1.5＜r≤2.5），fenbieshi：baihua、xiangchun、shanmu、dianbo、yunnansong、li、jiangzishaji、liushan。yuqunianfenxixiangbi，liyougongyingyanzhongguoshengzhuanweixiangduiguosheng，shanmu、yunnansong、jiangzishaji、liushanyougongxujibenpinghengzhuanweixiangduiguosheng，xiangchun、dianboyougongyingyanzhongbuzuzhuanweixiangduiguosheng。2023nianyumiaojianyi：yishangshuzhongkeyijinshenfazhan。

（3）miaomugongxujibenpinghengdeyou9zhong（1＜r≤1.5），fenbieshi：youcha、huashansong、liushu、bomu、huangbo、handonggua、zaojia、youyongmudan、qimu。yuqunianfenxixiangbi，youchayougongyingxiangduiguoshengzhuanweijibenpingheng，bomuhehuangboyirangongxujibenpingheng，huashansong、handonggua、zaojiayougongyingyanzhongbuzuzhuanweigongxujibenpingheng。2023nianyumiaojianyi：yishangshuzhongkeyishidangfazhan。

（4）miaomugongyingyanzhongbuzudeyou5zhong（r≤1），fenbieshi：zhulei、qingxiangmu、cili、cihuai、zangchuanyang。yuqunianfenxixiangbi，zhuleiyirangongyingbuzu，ciliyougongyingxiangduiguoshengzhuanweigongyingbuzu。2023nianyumiaojianyi：yishangshuzhongkeyidalifazhan。

*xinandiqugesheng（zizhiqu、zhixiashi）miaomugongxuqingkuangruxia：